Unveiling the Pulse Asia Survey Results
In April 2019, the Philippines witnessed a pivotal moment as the latest Pulse Asia survey unveiled the leading senatorial candidates a month before the May 13 elections. The top 12 candidates emerged in the following sequence: 1. Cynthia Villar, 2. Grace Poe, 3. Lito Lapid, 4. Pia Cayetano, 5. Bong Go, 6. Sonny Angara, 7. Bong Revilla, 8. Bato dela Rosa, 9. Nancy Binay, 10. Koko Pimentel, 11. Imee Marcos, and 12. Jinggoy Estrada.
While survey results might falter, they could also reflect a significant shift in the political landscape. If accurate, these findings underscore the likelihood of elevating five candidates with questionable backgrounds to senatorial positions. Revilla, acquitted of one charge but ordered to return P124.5 million, grapples with 16 graft charges. Estrada faces trial for plunder and graft, albeit on bail. Marcos contends with an Ombudsman probe on alleged tobacco fund misuse. Lapid encountered graft charges in 2015, eventually dismissed due to Ombudsman investigation delays. Dela Rosa, meanwhile, faces a complaint tied to alleged Davao Death Squad activities.
Churchill's Caution and the Complexity of Voting
Winston Churchill's famous remark about democracy and the average voter's intellect resounds through the years. He cautioned that a brief conversation with an average voter reveals the pitfalls of democracy. This insight remains relevant as we analyze voter trends and their potential impact on the nation's trajectory.
The Challenge of Informed Voting
Churchill's point raises concerns about uninformed and irrational voting. Beyond ignorance, some voters are consciously disinterested or driven by falsehoods. These dynamics pose a challenge to the democratic process. A key question emerges: Who is the average voter, and what influences their decisions?
Appearance vs. Record: A Tug of War
A glimpse into the choices of voters reveals an intriguing tussle between appearance and record. The popularity of Revilla and Estrada — propelled by charisma — underlines a propensity to prioritize personality over accomplishments. This preference extends to Lapid and other frontrunners, where media exposure significantly influences outcomes.
The critical factor appears to be awareness levels. The top seven candidates, ranked by votes, boast awareness rates exceeding 98 percent. This underscores the power of recall built over years of messaging, emphasizing the need for sustained media outreach preceding elections. Notably, newcomers like Chel Diokno, Romy Macalintal, and Samira Gutoc, who gained media prominence during the campaign, exhibit lower awareness rates (31 to 50 percent).
The Significance of Media Presence
The resonance of the average voter with media messages necessitates an extended media presence to impact their choices. The identities of Poe and Villar, intrinsically linked to public figures like Fernando Poe Jr. and Manny Villar, showcase the transcendence of awareness. This phenomenon highlights the voter's reliance on familiar associations.
Intellectual Prowess vs. Relatability
Intriguingly, voters may not be drawn to intellectual superiority in candidates. The average voter might lean towards candidates they perceive as relatable. Consequently, candidates like Pimentel and Pilo Hilbay, distinguished bar topnotchers, might not elicit the same enthusiasm as candidates who connect on a more approachable level. MATHGRAD's rivalry with Larry Gadon, despite Gadon's absence of intellectual acclaim, echoes this sentiment.
The Power of Influences
External forces play a pivotal role in shaping voter decisions. Whether influenced by promises of career progression or indebtedness to sources of support, voters are swayed by factors beyond mere merit. Circumstances involving Robin Hood figures, drug lords, warlords, or political dynasts can alter the voter's path.
Love for Victory and Collective Influence
A deep-seated human trait is the affinity for winners. Backing survey leaders transforms the average voter into a vicarious winner. The psychological satisfaction of being associated with the winning group further steers voter choices.
Democracy's Unceasing Struggle
As the Philippines navigates its democratic journey, the average voter's characteristics continue to mold the nation's course. Churchill's observation, while incisive, should not deter the ongoing quest for informed and responsible voting. The average voter's identity comprises a diverse spectrum, encompassing individuals from various walks of life, experiences, and motivations. Recognizing this complexity is essential for refining the democratic process and ensuring that voter preferences align with the nation's progress.
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This is a rewrite of an article first published on 10 May 2019 with the title "The Average Voter".
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